Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured in degrees Celsius. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low figures, a distinction that matters when intraday readings fluctuate or recording systems log peaks at different intervals. Settlement occurs at midday UTC on the resolution date, giving traders access to the full day's temperature data before the window closes.

Historical precedent suggests August temperatures in Tokyo cluster predictably. The city's summer highs typically range between 32–36°C during mid-August, with occasional spikes above 37°C during heat waves. The Japan Meteorological Agency's records show that extreme heat events—those pushing toward 40°C—occur roughly once per decade in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Current crowd probability sitting at 0% indicates traders are pricing in a scenario where August 19 falls within the modal range rather than an outlier event. This reflects seasonal norms rather than any specific forecast anomaly.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's extended forecasts from mid-August onward, particularly any alerts for heat wave conditions or upper-atmosphere pressure patterns that could drive sustained high temperatures. Pacific typhoon activity in late summer can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems over the continent tend to elevate them. Weather Underground's historical data for Haneda will provide the baseline for calibrating range expectations; comparing 2024 and 2025 August 19 readings offers direct comparability for similar calendar dates.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.