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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" — live odds for awards shows and entertainment markets, plus platform comparison.

Gavin Newsom 18% Jon Ossoff 16% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15% Kamala Harris 8% Volume: $1253.5M Liquidity: $79.3M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 18% 82% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 18% 82% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Gavin Newsom18%
Jon Ossoff16%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%
Kamala Harris8%
Pete Buttigieg5%
Josh Shapiro5%
Mark Kelly3%
Andy Beshear2%
Rahm Emanuel2%
Jon Stewart2%
Ro Khanna2%
James Talarico2%
Wes Moore1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Mark Cuban1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Cory Booker1%
Michelle Obama1%
Bernie Sanders1%
Hunter Biden1%
Chelsea Clinton1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Stephen A. Smith0%
Tim Walz0%
Gina Raimondo0%
Zohran Mamdani0%
Roy Cooper0%
John Fetterman0%
Jared Polis0%
Barack Obama0%
Hillary Clinton0%
Liz Cheney0%
Phil Murphy0%
LeBron James0%
George Clooney0%
MrBeast0%
Oprah Winfrey0%
Andrew Yang0%
Beto O’Rourke0%
Kim Kardashian0%
Chris Murphy0%
Jasmine Crockett0%
Ruben Gallego0%
Graham Platner0%
Abigail Spanberger0%
Hakeem Jeffries0%
Elissa Slotkin0%
Adam Schiff0%
Josh Stein0%
Alex Padilla0%
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Market context

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — current market-implied probability: 18%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution …

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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