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Presidential Election Winner 2028

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" — live odds for awards shows and entertainment markets, plus platform comparison.

JD Vance 21% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% Jon Ossoff 11% Marco Rubio 9% Volume: $708.8M Liquidity: $60.1M Closes: 21 Jan 2029
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Presidential Election Winner 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 21% 79% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 21% 79% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
Jon Ossoff11%
Marco Rubio9%
Gavin Newsom7%
Kamala Harris4%
Pete Buttigieg3%
Josh Shapiro3%
Ron DeSantis2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
Tucker Carlson2%
Mark Kelly2%
Wes Moore1%
Andy Beshear1%
Donald Trump1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Ro Khanna1%
Thomas Massie1%
James Talarico1%
Gretchen Whitmer0%
Glenn Youngkin0%
Stephen Smith0%
JB Pritzker0%
Tulsi Gabbard0%
Donald Trump Jr.0%
Nikki Haley0%
Tim Walz0%
Vivek Ramaswamy0%
Greg Abbott0%
Elon Musk0%
LeBron James0%
Kim Kardashian0%
Zohran Mamdani0%
Michelle Obama0%
Jamie Dimon0%
Eric Trump0%
Pete Hegseth0%
Jalen Brunson0%
Abigail Spanberger0%
Hakeem Jeffries0%
Elissa Slotkin0%
Adam Schiff0%
Josh Stein0%
Alex Padilla0%
Candace Owens0%
Tim Scott0%
Mike Johnson0%
Doug Burgum0%
Tom Cotton0%
John N. Kennedy0%
Rick Scott0%
Raphael Warnock0%
Ted Cruz0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
Person BT0%
Person BU0%
Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
Person CE0%
Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
Person CI0%
Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%
Person CR0%
Person CS0%
Person CT0%
Person CU0%
Person CV0%
Person CW0%
Person CX0%
Person CY0%
Person CZ0%
Person DA0%
Person DB0%
Other0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, presidential election winner 2028 stands at 21% likelihood according to current market consensus. The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, thi…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Presidential Election Winner 2028. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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