Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, Seoul's Incheon International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the highest reading logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular station data rather than the rounded summary figures. This distinction matters: observation tables often capture brief spikes that summary sections smooth away, potentially shifting outcomes between adjacent ranges.

Seoul's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows late-August highs clustering between 28–32°C, with extreme readings above 34°C occurring roughly once per decade during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in a specific narrow range or treating this as a calibration test. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically see probability mass concentrate around the modal historical outcome, with tail probabilities reflecting seasonal anomalies and climate patterns rather than genuine uncertainty about recording methodology.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any heat-wave alerts issued in early August 2026. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Korean Peninsula drive them upward. The resolution hinges entirely on Wunderground's Incheon station data availability and accuracy; any gaps or sensor malfunctions would trigger potential disputes, though the platform's historical reliability for major Asian airports is well-documented.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.