Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 98% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 98% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Match Winner | 60% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: 2GAME (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-5.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-6.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-7.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-8.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-9.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-4.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 98% chance of valorant: furia esports vs 2game esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between FURIA Esports and 2GAME Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In, initially scheduled for August 14 at 5:0…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 2GAME Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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Trade Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 2GAME Esports (BO3) - VCT… on Oscar Predictions 2026
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