Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 63% |
| Steven Fisk | 12% |
| Viktor Hovland | 8% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 6% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 4% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% |
| Jordan Spieth | 2% |
| Cameron Young | 2% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 1% |
| Sam Burns | 1% |
| Ricky Castillo | 1% |
| Bud Cauley | 1% |
| Eric Cole | 1% |
| Corey Conners | 1% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1% |
| Harris English | 1% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Rickie Fowler | 1% |
| Ryan Fox | 1% |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% |
| Chris Gotterup | 1% |
| Ben Griffin | 1% |
| Harry Hall | 1% |
| Brian Harman | 1% |
| Russell Henley | 1% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 1% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1% |
| Max Homa | 1% |
| Michael Kim | 1% |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% |
| Tom Kim | 1% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% |
| Jake Knapp | 1% |
| Min Woo Lee | 1% |
| Shane Lowry | 1% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% |
| Matt McCarty | 1% |
| Rory McIlroy | 1% |
| Maverick McNealy | 1% |
| Keith Mitchell | 1% |
| Collin Morikawa | 1% |
| Alexander Noren | 1% |
| JT Poston | 1% |
| Aaron Rai | 1% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1% |
| Justin Rose | 1% |
| Xander Schauffele | 1% |
| Matthias Schmid | 1% |
| Adam Scott | 1% |
| Alex Smalley | 1% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 1% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% |
| Sam Stevens | 1% |
| Sepp Straka | 1% |
| Nick Taylor | 1% |
| Sahith Theegala | 1% |
| Justin Thomas | 1% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 1% |
| Gary Woodland | 1% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 1% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pga tour: fedex st. jude championship winner stands at 63% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the FedEx St…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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Trade PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner on Oscar Predictions 2026
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