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WY-AL Republican Primary Winner

How the prediction markets are pricing "WY-AL Republican Primary Winner" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Chuck Gray 100% Candidate A 50% Candidate B 50% Candidate C 50% Volume: $183K Liquidity: $120K Closes: 18 Aug 2026
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WY-AL Republican Primary Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Chuck Gray100%
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Other50%
Jillian Balow0%
Bo Biteman0%
Frank Chapman0%
Kevin Christensen0%
Richard Dodson0%
Steve Friess0%
David Giralt0%
Keith Goodenough0%
Reid Rasner0%
John Romero-Martinez0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of wy-al republican primary winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the Wyoming At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House o…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for WY-AL Republican Primary Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Related Topics

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