Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 98% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 97% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 91% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-5.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-7.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-8.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+8.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-5.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-7.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-8.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+8.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-9.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-9.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: W7M (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between Cloud9 and Fluxo W7M in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In, initially scheduled for August 14 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: Cloud9 vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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