Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 13 July 2026 and publish it as the absolute daily minimum in Celsius to one decimal place. July is Hong Kong's peak summer season, with average daily lows around 26°C and humidity regularly exceeding 80%. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to remain above the lowest threshold in whatever range options are available, reflecting the seasonal norm of warm, humid conditions during mid-summer.

Historical Hong Kong Observatory data shows July minimums rarely dip below 24°C in the urban core, though the New Territories and higher elevations occasionally record lower readings. The Observatory's official measurements come from its Kowloon station, which tends to register warmer overnight temperatures than outlying areas due to urban heat effects. Comparable July records from the past decade show minimum temperatures clustering between 25–27°C, with only exceptional weather systems producing readings below 24°C. The current crowd assessment aligns with this pattern: absent a significant weather disruption, the lowest temperature will fall within the warmer bands.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from late June onwards, as these are the primary catalyst for anomalously cool overnight conditions in July. The Hong Kong Observatory issues seasonal outlooks in early summer; any forecast emphasising cooler-than-normal patterns would shift probability towards lower temperature ranges. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule for daily climate data, typically released within days of the observation date. No announcements or external events influence the actual temperature reading itself.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.