Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Wellington International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground’s daily history, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome above the implied baseline. The frontrunner is 15°C at 53%, followed by 16°C at 44%, suggesting the crowd expects a cool mid-summer day typical of the region’s July climate [1].

Historical July temperatures in Wellington rarely exceed 16°C, with most days hovering between 10°C and 15°C due to the city’s maritime influence and frequent southerly winds. This precedent aligns with the current probability distribution, where higher ranges are effectively dismissed, mirroring how weather markets in similar coastal cities often converge quickly on the most statistically likely band once early-season data stabilises.

Traders should monitor the 72-hour forecast from the New Zealand MetService and any sudden shifts in wind direction, as a northerly surge could push temperatures toward 17°C or higher. While no immediate announcements are scheduled, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, meaning real-time Wunderground updates will be the final catalyst for resolution. Any deviation from the 15–16°C range would require an unseasonal heat event, which remains statistically improbable given current atmospheric models.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.