Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 10 August will be decided by the airport station’s **Daily Observations** line, not the broader headline high/low summary, so the market is effectively about the day’s realised peak rather than the forecast banner. Early readings point to a cool, settled winter day: Weather Underground had Wellington at 11:57 am NZST showing **56°F / 48°F** with conditions “fair”, while AccuWeather’s day forecast called for **60°F / 49°F** and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.[5][1][2]

That framing matters because the current **0% YES** implies the crowd is treating a sub-forecast or narrowly bounded result as overwhelmingly likely, yet Wellington’s August climatology is usually stable enough that small swings can still decide the winning temperature band. Long-run August averages put daily highs around **54°F** in the city, with typical highs rarely breaking **59°F**, so a market tied to a specific Celsius range is less about dramatic weather shifts than about whether the realised airport maximum inches above or below the common mid-teens Celsius zone.[11][9][8]

The main catalysts are the sequence of observations at Wellington Intl Airport and any late-day southerly change, cloud thickening, or shower development that could cap the maximum before midday or early afternoon. AccuWeather’s hourly outlook showed temperatures easing from the high 50s Fahrenheit through the afternoon, while Time and Date and Weather Underground both described mostly sunny or passing-cloud conditions, which suggests the decisive print may come early rather than late.[1][4][5] Because the market settles on the exact temperature range recorded in the station log, traders should watch the live station feed more closely than forecast graphics or summary pages.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.