Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July is Tokyo's peak summer season, with average daily highs around 32°C, though extreme heat events regularly push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the day itself, meaning traders must assess conditions based on forecasts issued days in advance rather than observed outcomes.

Historical precedent suggests July temperatures in Tokyo cluster predictably within established ranges. The Japan Meteorological Agency records show that readings between 30–34°C occur in roughly 40% of July days at Haneda, whilst days exceeding 35°C account for approximately 25% of the month. The current 0% crowd probability indicates the market may be waiting for a specific temperature threshold to be defined, or reflects uncertainty about which range option exists in the full settlement criteria. Without visibility of the exact temperature bands offered, traders cannot calibrate their positions against seasonal norms or recent anomalies.

Weather forecasting accuracy for Tokyo degrades sharply beyond five days, making early-July positioning speculative. The Japan Meteorological Agency typically issues extended outlooks by mid-month that incorporate monsoon patterns and atmospheric pressure systems affecting the region. Traders should monitor late-July heat advisories and any unusual pressure systems developing over East Asia in the weeks preceding settlement, as these drive the variance between typical summer heat and exceptional extremes.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.