Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco's weather on 13 August 2026 will be measured at the airport station and resolved to a specific temperature range based on the highest reading recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full day's temperature data must be captured before resolution begins. This distinction between the Daily Observations granular record and the Day High & Low summary section is material; historical discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally favoured the more detailed observational log.

August temperatures in San Francisco typically peak between 65–75°F, with extremes rarely exceeding 80°F due to the Pacific's moderating influence and the Bay's coastal fog patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either confidence in a specific lower range or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's high. Comparable weather markets have shown that crowd confidence often reflects seasonal norms rather than year-specific anomalies; a heat dome or unusual atmospheric pattern in early August 2026 could shift expectations substantially.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 13 August, particularly any heat advisories or unusual pressure systems affecting Northern California. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlooks, typically issued monthly, will provide context for whether summer 2026 is tracking warmer or cooler than the thirty-year average. Real-time station data from NOAA and local airport records become the operative reference once the date arrives.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.