Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in Queens recorded a peak temperature of 104°F, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F and breaking the same-day record of 102°F. This extreme heat event, part of a broader New York heatwave, saw the airport hit 104°F, confirming that temperatures in the 100–101°F range are not merely possible but highly probable, as the market currently assigns a 97% chance to this outcome[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for "YES" on lower ranges appears starkly misaligned with the actual meteorological data, which shows daily highs ranging from 81° to 99° in July forecasts, yet recent records have exceeded these bounds significantly[3][4].

Historical precedents frame how to interpret this probability: just as Eurovision uses a 50/50 split between jury and televote to balance expert and public opinion, weather prediction markets must weigh long-term averages against recent anomalies. The highest temperature ever recorded at LaGuardia was 107°F on 3 July 1966, establishing a clear upper bound that recent events have approached[6]. Traders should watch for official Wunderground confirmations of the daily high, as the settlement relies on this specific data source for all times on 3 July[1]. Recent news from the New York Times confirms the heatwave’s intensity, noting LaGuardia’s 104°F reading as a record-breaking event that validates the market’s frontrunner outcome[4]. Dependencies include the timing of the Wunderground update and any potential data corrections, which could shift probabilities if the recorded high differs from initial reports.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.