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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Snapshot for "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 71% Game 2 Winner 67% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Volume: $162K Liquidity: $230K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?71%
Game 2 Winner67%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Game 4 Winner52%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?40%
Any Player Quadra Kill39%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?39%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor36%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors36%
Any Player Quadra Kill35%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)32%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill28%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to lol: lyon vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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