Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 21 July 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station throughout that day, with the settlement window closing at noon UTC. The National Weather Service and Weather Underground historical records serve as the factual baseline for resolving this market, removing ambiguity about which station or measurement method applies.

July temperatures in New York typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. Historical precedent from comparable weather markets shows that crowd probabilities near 0% often reflect genuine uncertainty rather than impossibility—traders frequently underweight tail outcomes when faced with wide temperature bands. The 2022 Northeast heat dome pushed New York to 96°F in early July, whilst the cooler summer of 2015 saw mid-July highs stabilise around 82°F. These variations suggest the resolution range itself matters significantly; markets resolving to narrow bands (e.g., 85–87°F) typically show higher crowd confidence than those spanning 10+ degrees.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate patterns and Atlantic hurricane activity through June and early July 2026, as tropical systems can suppress temperatures dramatically. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlooks, released monthly, will provide updated probability guidance for above-normal or below-normal conditions heading into late July. Real-time weather forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement, though longer-range ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts offer directional signals from mid-July onwards.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.