Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest recorded temperature at LaGuardia Airport** on 9 August, as resolved from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low box. That framing matters because prediction markets on weather are usually settled on a single station reading, so the tradable question is not whether New York City felt hot broadly, but which exact Fahrenheit band the LaGuardia maximum lands in.

For context, the market’s current **0% YES** crowd reading looks detached from the wider temperature profile implied by recent public forecasting. Polymarket’s own event page was showing **90–91°F as the leading outcome at 73%** with **92–93°F at 20%**, which suggests the crowd is not pricing an extreme outlier case.[4] Nearby climate and forecast references also point to a summer-heat regime rather than a cool anomaly: the National Weather Service’s climatological data lists an 84°F normal maximum for 9 August at Central Park, while day-specific forecast pages for LaGuardia were already in the upper 70s to low 80s before the date.[3][13]

Traders should watch for three catalysts: the late-day evolution of the actual airport observations, any forecast shifts into the final 24 hours, and whether the station’s peak is driven by a brief afternoon spike or a flatter plateau. Weather Spark’s live historical page showed LaGuardia at **88.0°F** with a **6-hour high of 89.1°F** on the afternoon of 9 August, which is the sort of reading that can anchor the final settlement band if later observations do not run hotter.[1] Because the market resolves on the highest value in the observation table, a small late-afternoon increase can matter more than the headline forecast, and the final print may diverge from the broader New York City narrative if the airport stays a degree or two cooler than central Manhattan.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.