Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 10 August 2026 will determine whether the day's peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport exceeds a specified threshold. The National Weather Service records hourly observations at the airport station, which serves as the official measurement point for the city's climate data. Resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different readings when peak temperatures occur outside standard reporting windows.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show a median high of 82°F, with extremes ranging from 96°F (recorded in 1949) to 69°F in cooler years. The 2% crowd probability suggests traders expect a notably high reading—likely in the upper 90s or above—to resolve affirmatively. August heat waves in the Northeast have become more frequent in recent decades; the summer of 2023 saw multiple days exceed 95°F across the region, whilst 2024 remained closer to seasonal norms. Recent precedent matters: if late July 2026 establishes an early heat dome pattern, August conditions may sustain elevated temperatures into the second week.

Traders should monitor mid-July atmospheric patterns and long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service, which typically gain reliability 10–14 days ahead. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence North American summer temperatures; current oceanic indices will shape August's baseline. Urban heat island effects around LaGuardia—particularly during high-pressure systems—can amplify readings by 2–3°F above surrounding areas, a factor worth tracking as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.