Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 4 July 2026, which will determine the market’s resolution. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, yet historical data and recent forecasts suggest daytime highs between 27–32°C are typical for this period[1]. Polymarket data shows the leading outcome is “31°C” at 59%, with “30°C” next at 32%, indicating strong market confidence in these ranges despite the zero probability for the binary question[1].

Historical precedent from July 2018 reveals a mean maximum temperature of 31.8°C, while 2025 marked Hong Kong’s sixth hottest year, with all months warmer than average and an annual mean of 24.3°C, 0.8°C above the 1991 baseline[4][7]. The highest monthly maximum temperature recorded since 1885 reached 35.7°C, demonstrating that extreme heat events are not unprecedented in July[6]. These cases frame the current 0% probability as potentially misaligned with climatic reality, especially given the 2025 warming trend.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” publication schedule, as resolution depends on finalized data in this source[4]. Recent reports confirm Hong Kong broke 20 weather records in 2025, reinforcing the momentum of rising temperatures[7]. AccuWeather forecasts for July 2026 predict daily highs between 86°F and 96°F (30–35.6°C), aligning with the 31°C market favourite[9]. No official announcements have yet altered this outlook, but the dependency on the Observatory’s finalised extract remains the critical catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.