Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature reading on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” for that day, with the market resolving only once the Daily Extract is published. The current 0% crowd price reflects a market that has not yet had its official resolution datapoint, rather than any settled outcome.

The historical frame is straightforward: Hong Kong’s August climate normally supports daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius, and the Observatory’s 10 August normal maximum is 31.4°C. But late-summer extremes can run much hotter; the Observatory said 10 August 2025 reached 34.4°C, and Hong Kong’s all-time Observatory maximum was recently reset at 36.9°C, underlining how quickly a hot spell can move a market from ordinary seasonal heat into record territory. That is the sort of precedent traders usually treat like a jury-versus-public split: the public may anchor on the climatological average, while the “jury” of official station data can still deliver a much higher verdict.

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly observations, any typhoon or heat warnings, and whether the city’s weather pattern stays under subsiding air, warm onshore flow, or storm-driven compression. At 6 a.m. on 10 August, the Observatory was already reporting 29°C, with many urban sites in the high 20s, so the early-day setup matters as much as the afternoon peak. Traders should watch for the Observatory’s midday updates and the final daily extract, because the settlement depends on that published maximum rather than forecasts alone.

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Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.