Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field Station will record a maximum temperature on 13 July 2026, with traders wagering on which range—from the 90s through low 110s Fahrenheit—will contain that day's high. The National Weather Service operates this official station, and historical data from Wunderground provides the settlement baseline. July in Dallas typically sees highs between 95 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the 105–110 range.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will verify rather than doubt that a reading will occur. Historical July records for Dallas show considerable variance: the city has recorded highs as low as 89°F and as high as 113°F in the month, with most years clustering in the 95–99°F band. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms have shown that traders often compress probabilities toward modal outcomes—the most frequently observed ranges—leaving tail scenarios underpriced until seasonal patterns or atmospheric forecasts shift expectations.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast for mid-July 2026 as the settlement window approaches. Upper-level atmospheric patterns, particularly the position of the Bermuda high-pressure system and any tropical moisture intrusions from the Gulf of Mexico, will influence whether Dallas experiences typical summer heat or anomalous conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks that can signal whether July 2026 tracks toward above or below-normal temperatures across Texas.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.