Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s summer heat on 20 July 2026 will be measured at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that day’s peak temperature. The crowd-implied probability of any outcome currently sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect either a data gap, an extreme outlier, or a misalignment between the listed ranges and likely conditions. Historically, Beijing’s late-July highs at ZBAA typically cluster between 30°C and 38°C, with the 2023 peak reaching 39.4°C and the 2024 record at 38.7°C, according to Wunderground’s daily archives for the station [1]. These precedents frame the 0% probability as potentially premature, unless the market’s range options exclude this established band entirely.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live daily update for ZBAA once the 2026-07-20 window closes, as settlement hinges solely on that source’s highest recorded value [1]. Key catalysts include any official meteorological bulletins from China’s National Meteorological Centre issued during the day, which often precede Wunderground’s final entry, and the timing of the station’s automated sensor recalibration, which can delay data publication by several hours. Recent heatwave coverage in northern China, including a July 2025 event that pushed Beijing to 39.1°C, underscores the volatility of late-July temperatures and the risk of sudden spikes [2]. With the settlement deadline at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, timely access to the final Wunderground record will be critical for accurate resolution.

[1] Wunderground, “Daily history: Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA)”, https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA [2] China Daily, “Northern China braces for intense heatwave as temperatures soar”, 15 July 2025

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.