Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 99% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 99% |
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| O/U 30.5 | 88% |
| O/U 32.5 | 85% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 79% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| Spread -4.5 | 70% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 69% |
| Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| Spread -6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 51% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| Spread -16.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -17.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 50.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -19.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -20.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots | 18% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 15% |
| Spread -1.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 15% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Spread -8.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -19.5 | 2% |
| Spread -21.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
Market context
Steelers vs. Patriots. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 33% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $4.2M.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Steelers vs. Patriots. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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