Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 88% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 24.5 | 82% |
| O/U 28.5 | 82% |
| O/U 27.5 | 80% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| O/U 26.5 | 78% |
| O/U 29.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 30.5 | 73% |
| O/U 31.5 | 72% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 33.5 | 69% |
| O/U 32.5 | 67% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 64% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 63% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 34.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 35.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 36.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| O/U 37.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 42.5 | 39% |
| O/U 41.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 43.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 44.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 53.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 27% |
| O/U 45.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 56.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| O/U 46.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| O/U 63.5 | 23% |
| O/U 65.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 47.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 48.5 | 18% |
| O/U 49.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 50.5 | 15% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 52.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| O/U 55.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 58.5 | 5% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 5% |
| O/U 61.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 3% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 3% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 3% |
| O/U 64.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
Market context
Broncos vs. 49ers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 45% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-04T20:25:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $5.6M.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Broncos vs. 49ers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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