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LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

How the prediction markets are pricing "LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Game 1 Winner 100% Game 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) 100% Volume: $325K Liquidity: $830K Closes: 23 Aug 2026
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LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Game 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)100%
First Blood in Game 2?100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Odd/Even Total Kills90%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Odd/Even Total Kills90%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors9%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?8%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?7%
Any Player Quadra Kill1%
Any Player Penta Kill1%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors1%
Any Player Quadra Kill1%
Any Player Penta Kill1%
First Blood in Game 1?1%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Game Handicap: FXW7 (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of lol: red canids vs fluxo w7m (bo3) - cblol regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between RED Canids and Fluxo W7M in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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