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MLB: Doubles Leader

How the prediction markets are pricing "MLB: Doubles Leader" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

James Wood 27% Josh Jung 25% Kevin McGonigle 19% Willy Adames 10% Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $26K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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MLB: Doubles Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 27% 73% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 27% 73% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
James Wood27%
Josh Jung25%
Kevin McGonigle19%
Willy Adames10%
Matt Olson10%
Bobby Witt Jr.8%
Freddie Freeman7%
Ernie Clement5%
Ezequiel Tovar4%
Nico Hoerner3%
Mauricio Dubón3%
Taylor Ward2%
Bo Bichette2%
Bryan Reynolds2%
Francisco Lindor2%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.2%
Gavin Sheets1%
Casey Schmitt1%
Pete Alonso1%
Jarren Duran1%
Maikel Garcia1%
Pete Crow-Armstrong1%
Salvador Perez1%
Bryce Harper1%
Ian Happ1%
Juan Soto1%
George Springer1%
Corbin Carroll1%
Riley Greene1%
Colt Keith0%
Christian Walker0%
Adley Rutschman0%
Rhys Hoskins0%
Gabriel Moreno0%
Brent Rooker0%
CJ Abrams0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Aaron Judge0%
Andy Pages0%
Nick Kurtz0%
Yordan Alvarez0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Other0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 27% probability to mlb: doubles leader. This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most doubles during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the offic…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for MLB: Doubles Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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