🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

"LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" — live odds for awards shows and entertainment markets, plus platform comparison.

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 64% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 59% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 57% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? 55% Volume: $118K Liquidity: $491K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
Open live market →
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 64% 36% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 64% 36% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?64%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?53%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Game 1 Winner49%
O/U 2.5 Games49%
Game 2 Winner48%
Match Winner47%
First Blood in Game 2?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?41%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)30%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor25%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?25%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors24%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors24%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)23%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 64% probability to lol: weibo gaming vs ninjas in pyjamas (bo3) - lpl group nirvana. This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 13 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if …

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL G… on Oscar Predictions 2026

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Oscar Predictions 2026.

See all markets →