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Penn State vs. Michigan

Snapshot for "Penn State vs. Michigan": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

Spread -0.5 100% Spread -1.5 100% Spread -2.5 100% O/U 35.5 100% Volume: $373K Liquidity: $447K Closes: 17 Oct 2026
Open live market →
Penn State vs. Michigan

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Spread -0.5100%
Spread -1.5100%
Spread -2.5100%
O/U 35.5100%
O/U 37.5100%
2H O/U 21.5100%
2H O/U 24.5100%
2H O/U 27.5100%
3Q O/U 7.5100%
3Q O/U 10.5100%
3Q O/U 13.5100%
4Q O/U 7.5100%
4Q O/U 10.5100%
4Q O/U 13.5100%
Michigan 2H O/U 12.5100%
Michigan 2H O/U 14.5100%
Michigan 2H O/U 16.5100%
1Q Spread -1.5100%
1Q Spread -0.5100%
3Q Spread -0.5100%
3Q Spread -1.5100%
3Q Spread -2.5100%
3Q Spread -3.5100%
3Q Spread -5.5100%
1H Moneyline100%
1Q Moneyline100%
2H O/U 30.591%
4Q O/U 16.591%
4Q O/U 19.591%
2H O/U 33.590%
Penn State 2H O/U 11.590%
Penn State 2H O/U 13.590%
2H Spread -3.554%
2H Spread -4.554%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H53%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown53%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q453%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q453%
Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.553%
Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.553%
Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.553%
Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.553%
Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.553%
Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.553%
Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.553%
Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.553%
Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.553%
Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.553%
Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.553%
Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.553%
Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.553%
Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.553%
2H Spread -0.553%
2H Spread -2.553%
2H Spread -5.553%
4Q Spread -1.553%
Michigan O/U 2.553%
4Q Moneyline53%
Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.550%
Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.550%
Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.550%
Penn State vs. Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.550%
2Q Moneyline50%
Penn State 2H O/U 15.548%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H48%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q248%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q348%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q248%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q148%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown48%
Pick-Six Scored48%
Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.548%
Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.548%
Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.548%
Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.548%
Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.548%
Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.548%
Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.548%
Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.548%
Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.548%
Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.548%
Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.548%
Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.548%
Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.548%
Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.548%
Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.548%
Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.548%
Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.548%
Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.548%
Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.548%
Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.548%
Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.548%
Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.548%
Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.548%
Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.548%
Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.548%
Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.548%
Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.548%
Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.548%
Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.548%
Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.548%
Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.548%
Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.548%
Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.548%
Penn State vs. Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.548%
4Q Spread -0.548%
4Q Spread -5.548%
Penn State O/U 2.548%
Game Goes to Overtime47%
2H Spread -7.547%
4Q Spread -1.547%
4Q Spread -2.547%
4Q Spread -3.547%
2H Moneyline47%
O/U 49.51%
O/U 53.51%
O/U 55.51%
O/U 59.51%
O/U 61.51%
O/U 67.51%
O/U 69.51%
O/U 71.51%
O/U 75.51%
Penn State O/U 20.51%
Penn State O/U 23.51%
Penn State O/U 26.51%
Penn State O/U 29.51%
Penn State O/U 32.51%
Michigan O/U 32.51%
Michigan O/U 35.51%
Penn State vs. Michigan0%
Spread -20.50%
Spread -17.50%
Spread -16.50%
Spread -14.50%
Spread -13.50%
Spread -10.50%
Spread -8.50%
Spread -7.50%
Spread -6.50%
Spread -5.50%
Spread -4.50%
Spread -3.50%
Spread -2.50%
Spread -1.50%
Spread -0.50%
Spread -3.50%
Spread -4.50%
Spread -5.50%
Spread -6.50%
Spread -7.50%
Spread -8.50%
Spread -10.50%
Spread -13.50%
Spread -14.50%
Spread -16.50%
Spread -17.50%
Spread -20.50%
O/U 39.50%
O/U 41.50%
O/U 43.50%
O/U 45.50%
O/U 47.50%
O/U 51.50%
O/U 57.50%
O/U 63.50%
O/U 65.50%
O/U 73.50%
1H O/U 21.50%
1H O/U 24.50%
1H O/U 27.50%
1H O/U 30.50%
1H O/U 33.50%
1Q O/U 7.50%
1Q O/U 10.50%
1Q O/U 13.50%
1Q O/U 16.50%
1Q O/U 19.50%
2Q O/U 7.50%
2Q O/U 10.50%
2Q O/U 13.50%
2Q O/U 16.50%
2Q O/U 19.50%
3Q O/U 16.50%
3Q O/U 19.50%
Michigan O/U 23.50%
Michigan O/U 26.50%
Michigan O/U 29.50%
Penn State 1H O/U 11.50%
Penn State 1H O/U 13.50%
Penn State 1H O/U 15.50%
Michigan 1H O/U 12.50%
Michigan 1H O/U 14.50%
Michigan 1H O/U 16.50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q30%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q10%
1H Spread -0.50%
1H Spread -2.50%
1H Spread -3.50%
1H Spread -4.50%
1H Spread -5.50%
1H Spread -7.50%
1Q Spread -3.50%
1Q Spread -0.50%
1Q Spread -1.50%
1Q Spread -3.50%
2Q Spread -1.50%
2Q Spread -0.50%
2Q Spread -1.50%
2Q Spread -2.50%
2Q Spread -3.50%
2Q Spread -5.50%
3Q Spread -1.50%
1Q Spread -2.50%
1Q Spread -5.50%
3Q Moneyline0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, penn state vs. michigan stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Penn State and Michigan, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game. T…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Spread -0.5 at 100% for "Penn State vs. Michigan".

Spread -0.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $373K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Penn State vs. Michigan. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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