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Boise State vs. Fresno State

How the prediction markets are pricing "Boise State vs. Fresno State" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Boise State vs. Fresno State 100% Spread -6.5 100% Spread -5.5 100% Spread -4.5 100% Volume: $1.4M Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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Boise State vs. Fresno State

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Boise State vs. Fresno State100%
Spread -6.5100%
Spread -5.5100%
Spread -4.5100%
Spread -3.5100%
Spread -2.5100%
Spread -1.5100%
Spread -0.5100%
O/U 35.5100%
O/U 37.5100%
O/U 39.5100%
O/U 41.5100%
O/U 43.5100%
O/U 45.5100%
O/U 47.5100%
O/U 49.5100%
O/U 51.5100%
O/U 53.5100%
O/U 55.5100%
O/U 57.5100%
O/U 59.5100%
O/U 61.5100%
O/U 63.5100%
O/U 65.5100%
O/U 67.5100%
1H O/U 21.5100%
1H O/U 24.5100%
1H O/U 27.5100%
1H O/U 30.5100%
1H O/U 33.5100%
2H O/U 21.5100%
1Q O/U 7.5100%
1Q O/U 10.5100%
1Q O/U 13.5100%
1Q O/U 16.5100%
1Q O/U 19.5100%
2Q O/U 7.5100%
2Q O/U 10.5100%
2Q O/U 13.5100%
2Q O/U 16.5100%
4Q O/U 7.5100%
4Q O/U 10.5100%
4Q O/U 13.5100%
4Q O/U 16.5100%
4Q O/U 19.5100%
Boise State O/U 20.5100%
Boise State O/U 23.5100%
Boise State O/U 26.5100%
Boise State O/U 29.5100%
Boise State O/U 32.5100%
Fresno State O/U 23.5100%
Fresno State O/U 26.5100%
Fresno State O/U 29.5100%
Boise State 1H O/U 11.5100%
Boise State 1H O/U 13.5100%
Boise State 1H O/U 15.5100%
Fresno State 1H O/U 12.5100%
Fresno State 1H O/U 14.5100%
Fresno State 1H O/U 16.5100%
Boise State 2H O/U 11.5100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H100%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1100%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2100%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4100%
Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5100%
Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5100%
Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5100%
Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5100%
Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5100%
Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5100%
Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5100%
Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5100%
Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5100%
Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5100%
Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5100%
Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5100%
Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5100%
Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5100%
Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5100%
Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5100%
Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5100%
Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5100%
Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5100%
Boise State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5100%
Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5100%
Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5100%
Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5100%
Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5100%
Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5100%
Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5100%
Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5100%
Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5100%
Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5100%
Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5100%
Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5100%
Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5100%
Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5100%
Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5100%
Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5100%
1H Spread -4.5100%
1H Spread -3.5100%
1H Spread -2.5100%
1H Spread -0.5100%
2H Spread -0.5100%
1Q Spread -1.5100%
1Q Spread -0.5100%
2Q Spread -2.5100%
2Q Spread -1.5100%
2Q Spread -0.5100%
3Q Spread -2.5100%
3Q Spread -1.5100%
3Q Spread -0.5100%
2H Moneyline100%
Boise State O/U 3.5100%
Fresno State O/U 2.5100%
1H Moneyline100%
1Q Moneyline100%
2Q Moneyline100%
3Q Moneyline100%
Boise State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
Spread -20.50%
Spread -17.50%
Spread -16.50%
Spread -14.50%
Spread -13.50%
Spread -10.50%
Spread -8.50%
Spread -7.50%
Spread -0.50%
Spread -1.50%
Spread -2.50%
Spread -3.50%
Spread -4.50%
Spread -5.50%
Spread -6.50%
Spread -7.50%
Spread -8.50%
Spread -10.50%
Spread -13.50%
Spread -14.50%
Spread -16.50%
Spread -17.50%
Spread -20.50%
O/U 69.50%
O/U 71.50%
O/U 73.50%
O/U 75.50%
2H O/U 24.50%
2H O/U 27.50%
2H O/U 30.50%
2H O/U 33.50%
2Q O/U 19.50%
3Q O/U 7.50%
3Q O/U 10.50%
3Q O/U 13.50%
3Q O/U 16.50%
3Q O/U 19.50%
Fresno State O/U 32.50%
Fresno State O/U 35.50%
Boise State 2H O/U 13.50%
Boise State 2H O/U 15.50%
Fresno State 2H O/U 12.50%
Fresno State 2H O/U 14.50%
Fresno State 2H O/U 16.50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q30%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q30%
Game Goes to Overtime0%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown0%
Pick-Six Scored0%
Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.50%
Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.50%
Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.50%
Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.50%
Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.50%
Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.50%
Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.50%
Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.50%
Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.50%
Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.50%
Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.50%
Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 24.50%
Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.50%
Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.50%
Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.50%
Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.50%
1H Spread -7.50%
1H Spread -5.50%
2H Spread -7.50%
2H Spread -5.50%
2H Spread -4.50%
2H Spread -3.50%
2H Spread -2.50%
1Q Spread -3.50%
1Q Spread -0.50%
1Q Spread -1.50%
1Q Spread -3.50%
2Q Spread -5.50%
2Q Spread -3.50%
2Q Spread -1.50%
3Q Spread -5.50%
3Q Spread -3.50%
3Q Spread -1.50%
4Q Spread -5.50%
4Q Spread -3.50%
4Q Spread -2.50%
4Q Spread -1.50%
4Q Spread -0.50%
4Q Spread -1.50%
4Q Moneyline0%

Market context

Boise State vs. Fresno State — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Boise State and Fresno State, scheduled for October 10 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boise State" if Boise State win the game. This market w…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Boise State vs. Fresno State at 100% for "Boise State vs. Fresno State".

Boise State vs. Fresno State 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.4M.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Boise State vs. Fresno State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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