Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| The Hawk: Season 1 | 97% |
| Show A | 50% |
| Show B | 50% |
| Show C | 50% |
| Show D | 50% |
| Show E | 50% |
| Show F | 50% |
| Show G | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 | 3% |
| I Will Find You: Limited Series | 1% |
| Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 | 0% |
| Quarterback: Season 3 | 0% |
| The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4 | 0% |
| Dark Winds: Season 4 | 0% |
| Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2 | 0% |
| Sullivan's Crossing: Season 4 | 0% |
| Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 2 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 97% chance of what will be the top us netflix show this week?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). …
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for What will be the top US Netflix show this week?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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