Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Team Liquid (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-5.5) vs Team Liquid (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Team Liquid (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-6.5) vs Team Liquid (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-7.5) vs Team Liquid (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-8.5) vs Team Liquid (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 81% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 80% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Team Liquid (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Team Liquid (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Match Winner | 37% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 21% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: team liquid vs paper rex (bo3) - vct champions group c stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Liquid and Paper Rex in the VCT Champions Group C, initially scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Trade Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champ… on Oscar Predictions 2026
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