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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

How the prediction markets are pricing "LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

First Blood in Game 1? 100% Game 1 Winner 74% Match Winner 64% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? 55% Volume: $571K Liquidity: $558K Closes: 14 Aug 2026
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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
First Blood in Game 1?100%
Game 1 Winner74%
Match Winner64%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?52%
Game 2 Winner51%
O/U 2.5 Games51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?44%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)38%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: nongshim red force vs hanjin brion (bo3) - lck round 3-4 rise group stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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