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What price will Bitcoin hit July 20-26?

How the prediction markets are pricing "What price will Bitcoin hit July 20-26?" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

↑ 66,000 100% ↑ 68,000 59% ↑ 70,000 22% ↓ 62,000 13% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $216K Closes: 27 Jul 2026
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What price will Bitcoin hit July 20-26?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↑ 66,000100%
↑ 68,00059%
↑ 70,00022%
↓ 62,00013%
↑ 72,0005%
↓ 60,0004%
↑ 74,0002%
↑ 76,0001%
↓ 58,0001%
↓ 56,0001%
↑ 78,0000%
↓ 54,0000%
↓ 52,0000%
↓ 50,0000%

Market context

The What price will Bitcoin hit July 20-26? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. What price will Bitcoin hit July 20-26?

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for What price will Bitcoin hit July 20-26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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