Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heat wave, with LaGuardia Airport recording an unprecedented 94°F midnight temperature on 4 July 2026 as the city struggles through persistent high temperatures [1][4]. This extreme weather event has pushed daily highs well above seasonal norms, with July 2026 forecasts indicating daily highs ranging from 73°F to 91°F at the station [2]. The market’s current 0% probability for the YES outcome reflects a consensus that the specific temperature range in question is unlikely to be reached given the prevailing conditions, though the ongoing heat wave introduces significant volatility into short-term forecasts.

Historical precedent suggests that July temperatures in NYC can spike dramatically during heat waves, with LaGuardia breaking its previous midnight record of 93°F set in 2013 to reach 94°F just days ago [1][4]. Comparable cases show that when such extreme heat persists, daily highs often exceed 90°F, making lower temperature ranges less probable. The market’s pricing appears to underweight the momentum of this current heat event, which has already established new records for the station and suggests continued thermal intensity through mid-July.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which will provide official confirmation of the day’s highest temperature [8]. Key catalysts include any announcements from the NWS regarding heat advisories or record-breaking potential, as well as real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source for this market [5]. The persistence of the heat wave, confirmed by FOX Weather’s reporting on the record-setting midnight temperature, indicates that temperature dependencies remain highly sensitive to atmospheric conditions over the next 12 hours [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.