Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event underpinning this market is the daily high temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, with June 2026 forecasts indicating highs between 96°F and 100°F and overnight lows of 77°F to 83°F[1]. Historical data for the same period shows a record high of 107°F, while the actual high on 25 June 2026 was 83°F, well below the seasonal average of 94.2°F[2]. The current 0% YES probability for the highest temperature range suggests the crowd expects a significant deviation from typical June extremes, possibly influenced by the year’s peak temperature of 97°F recorded on 2 June 2026, which remains the highest so far in 2026[8].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly observations for Dallas Love Field, particularly wind speed and cloud cover, as these directly impact temperature readings[4]. Recent precedent from similar climate markets, such as the June 27 Dallas high temp market where the 96–97°F band held at 60% probability, indicates that temperature bands near 96°F are often contested but not guaranteed[9]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns, such as increased southerly winds gusting up to 22 mph, which could suppress temperatures below forecasted ranges[4]. The settlement window ending at noon local time on 28 June 2026 means traders must watch for real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, before the market closes[2]. Cultural momentum in prediction markets often mirrors jury-public splits seen in events like Eurovision, where 50% of the vote comes from experts and 50% from the public, suggesting that professional meteorologists’ forecasts may outweigh crowd sentiment in this case[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.