Highest temperature in Wellington on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s 28 July high will be set by the official daily maximum at Wellington International Airport, and the market resolves on the temperature band that contains that reading. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, traders are effectively pricing a late-July winter daytime peak in a city that is usually mild, windy, and changeable rather than extreme.[1][3]

The current 0% YES impression is best read against Wellington’s seasonal baseline: July highs are typically around 12°C, with recent forecast services putting the late-July warm end near 12°C and some days closer to 5–10°C.[2][3] That makes very hot outcomes structurally unlikely, so the market is less about a surge than about whether the day lands in the upper edge of the normal winter range. In prediction-market terms, this is closer to a low-volatility weather band than a public-versus-panel contest, because the outcome is anchored to a single airport observation rather than a subjective vote or a multi-stage judging process.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates and the actual midday-to-evening temperature evolution at Wellington Airport, especially if a northerly flow, clearing skies, or a passing front changes the day’s maximum.[1][2] BBC Weather currently shows 10°C with northerly winds and high humidity, which fits a cool, moist setup rather than a heat spike.[1] Traders should watch whether local forecasts trend a degree or two higher or lower into the settlement window, because even small changes can move the result between adjacent Celsius bands when the expected high is already near the lower double digits.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.