Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's weather on 17 August 2026 will be measured against historical August temperatures in the city, which typically peaks between 32–35°C during the summer monsoon season. The Sichuan basin's geography creates a humid subtropical climate where afternoon highs frequently exceed 33°C in mid-August, though extreme heat events pushing above 38°C remain less common than in northern Chinese cities. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official resolution source—records readings at regular intervals throughout the day, distinguishing this market from casual weather forecasts that often report rounded daily highs.

Historical precedent suggests that August temperature markets in Chinese cities have typically resolved within expected seasonal ranges, with outlier heat events accounting for roughly 15–20% of extreme-temperature outcomes over the past decade. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders currently expect the market's highest temperature bracket to fall within typical August parameters rather than unusual extremes. Chengdu has experienced temperatures above 40°C on isolated occasions, most recently during the 2022 heatwave, though such events remain meteorologically exceptional rather than routine.

Traders monitoring this market should track real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Weather Underground's 10-day outlook as August approaches. La Niña or El Niño patterns influence East Asian summer monsoon intensity and can shift seasonal temperature distributions; any significant atmospheric anomalies reported in July 2026 would warrant reassessment. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 17 August, meaning the highest temperature recorded up to that point determines resolution.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.