Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 17 August 2026 and publish it as the absolute daily minimum in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on which temperature range contains that official reading, with settlement occurring after the Observatory finalises its daily extract data for that date.

August is Hong Kong's hottest and most humid month, with average daily minimums around 26°C and extremes rarely dipping below 23°C during the summer season. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily minimums in mid-August have never fallen below 20°C in recorded history, making the lower temperature brackets structurally unlikely. The 0% crowd probability reflects this seasonal reality: traders are pricing in near-certainty that the minimum will fall within the warmer ranges typical of Hong Kong's summer climate. Comparable summer-month temperature markets in tropical and subtropical regions show similar clustering of probability towards higher ranges, with extreme cold outcomes receiving negligible backing.

Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding 17 August, as these remain the only realistic catalysts for temperature depression during peak summer. The settlement window closes at midday on the date itself, though actual resolution depends on the Observatory publishing finalised data, which typically occurs within days of the observation period. No announcements or schedule changes are anticipated to alter the Observatory's standard measurement and reporting protocols.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.