Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 31 July, measured in Celsius and settled from Wunderground’s daily history page for NZWN. With the current crowd price at 0% YES, the market is effectively saying a qualifying maximum is viewed as either extremely unlikely or not yet reflected in trading.

To read that kind of probability, traders usually lean on the city’s winter climatology rather than any single intraday swing. Wellington’s July norms are cool: the monthly average high is around 13–14°C, with typical July highs in the mid-teens and much lower overnight values, according to climate summaries for Wellington and local historical weather datasets.[8][11][13] That means the market is not about an abstract “hot day”, but about whether a late-July peak at the airport can break well above the seasonal baseline. Comparable weather markets often move sharply on whether the underlying observation is a calendar-day maximum or a shorter settlement window, so the exact cut-off matters more than broad seasonal averages.

The main catalysts are the synoptic setup on the day: a brief foehn-like warm spell, a northerly wind shift, or a front arriving later in the afternoon can alter the day’s maximum even if the morning looks cool. Traders should watch Wellington forecasts and nowcasts from meteorological services, plus the Wunderground history page as the official settlement source, because the highest reading can come early and then hold for the rest of the day.[10][11] In a market with a noon UTC settlement window, the timing of the airport’s local-day peak relative to the observation cut-off is the key dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.