Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the precise hourly readings rather than the rounded summary figures. August falls within Wellington's winter season in the Southern Hemisphere, when daytime highs typically range between 10–13°C, though occasional warm northerly winds can push temperatures several degrees higher.

Historical temperature records for Wellington in August show considerable variability year to year. The MetService records indicate August highs have ranged from below 10°C during cold fronts to occasional peaks near 18°C during warm spells driven by subtropical air masses. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of temperatures falling within the lower ranges typical for mid-winter, though the exact threshold triggering YES resolution remains unspecified in the market parameters. Comparable weather prediction markets typically see significant repricing once seasonal forecasts emerge in the weeks preceding the settlement date.

Traders should monitor the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) long-range forecasts released in late July 2026, which will provide guidance on whether anomalous warmth is expected. Real-time tracking begins in early August when MetService issues its official forecast for the specific date. Southern Oscillation Index readings and sea surface temperatures around New Zealand will influence whether northerly flow develops, the primary mechanism for above-average August temperatures in Wellington. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary data means traders should verify historical consistency between that source and official MetService records.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.