Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s 31 July high is the real-world figure that matters here, measured at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station and published by Wunderground, so the market is effectively a daytime temperature watch rather than a broad city-average forecast. With settlement tied to the single highest reading on the day, a late-afternoon surge can still decide the band even if the morning looks subdued.

The current 0% YES implies the crowd is treating the outcome as far above the likely range, which is understandable only if the board is anchored to an unusually hot threshold. Tokyo’s July climate normally sits around the high 20s to mid-30s Celsius, while recent local and national reporting shows Japan has been running exceptionally hot, including record-breaking readings of 41.2C in Hyogo and a 41.8C national extreme in August 2025.[2][11][12][13] That context argues for caution with any implied “impossible” pricing: heat in Japan has become more plausible at the upper tail, even if Tokyo Haneda does not always share inland extremes.[9][11]

The main catalysts are the day’s synoptic set-up, the timing of sunshine versus cloud, and whether any heat advisory or warning shifts expectations before the Haneda observation window closes. Traders should watch Japan Meteorological Agency updates and late-morning to afternoon temperature trend data, because the winning band can change quickly if the peak arrives after mid-day; recent reports show dangerous heat persisting across Japan with 40C-plus readings in western prefectures and the hottest July on record nationally, which keeps attention on any broader warm-air pattern reaching Kanto.[5][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.