Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s maximum temperature on 24 July will be set by the highest reading at Haneda Airport, not by city-wide averages, so the market is really about one specific afternoon spike rather than a general Tokyo feel. Wunderground’s history page for the station is the settlement source, which means the final outcome depends on the day’s single highest observed Celsius value before the window closes, not on forecasts or perceived “hot weather” overall.

The crowd’s 0% YES looks like a mechanical artefact rather than a substantive read on the weather: when a market is tied to a single daily high, traders often anchor to seasonal norms and ignore how quickly the upper tail can move in a Tokyo summer. July in Tokyo is typically very warm, with highs around 30°C and humid, rainy conditions still common, so precedent from similar weather markets usually favours a broad spread of possible outcomes rather than a binary certainty. The useful comparison is to voting models in entertainment markets: one exceptional reading can outweigh the general consensus, much as a jury or preferential ballot can overturn a public plurality.

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s heat build-up, cloud cover, sea breeze off Tokyo Bay, and any thunderstorms or heavy rain that cap the maximum even if it feels muggy. Because the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, the relevant local-time peak may already have occurred or still be developing depending on the station’s timing, so the intraday forecast path matters more than the morning temperature. Watch for last-minute updates from weather services and any shifting forecast that changes whether Haneda gets a brief late-morning climb or stays pinned below the most common summer ranges.

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Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.