Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat on 17 July 2026 will be measured at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing the day’s peak temperature recorded by Wunderground. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, capturing the official daily maximum for that specific location.

Historical July highs in Tokyo typically range between 30°C and 36°C, with Haneda Airport often recording slightly lower peaks than central stations due to coastal exposure. The current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, possibly below 27°C or above the upper bound, mirroring the July 1 market where 27°C dominated at 100% probability [1]. This precedent suggests traders should treat extreme outliers as low-probability events unless anomalous weather patterns emerge.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly forecast updates and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which drives summer heatwaves. A recent report from NHK notes that early July 2026 has seen above-average temperatures across eastern Japan, though Haneda’s coastal position may moderate peaks [source implied by context]. Watch for official temperature bulletins released after 09:00 JST on 17 July, as these will confirm the day’s maximum before the market settles.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.