Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s result will be set by the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport Station on 5 August, so the key issue is not the opening reading but the day’s eventual peak. Early indications point to a hot afternoon: hourly forecasts for Tokyo show temperatures climbing into the high 20s Celsius by midday, with around 88°F/31°C at noon and little sign of precipitation depressing the daytime high. [10] Official JMA daily data for Tokyo already show Haneda at 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August, which is a reminder that the city can still run hotter than broad monthly averages even when forecasts look merely warm. [1]

The market’s current 0% YES implies a temperature band that is not yet in play, but historical context argues against treating that as settled. Tokyo’s August climate normally centres on highs around 31°C, while forecast services for this month cluster in the 31°C–32°C range, with some days pushing into the mid-30s. [11][13][15] More broadly, Japan has just come through another severe heat period: Reuters reported record national temperatures in 2025, underscoring how quickly summer markets can drift upwards when the Pacific High strengthens. [14] For traders, the important mechanics are straightforward: watch for revised JMA guidance, same-day cloud cover and rainfall, and any late-afternoon surge in heating, because the market resolves to the *day’s maximum*, not the most likely average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.