Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 4 August will be the settlement figure, and the market is effectively asking whether the day breaks out of the city’s usual August heat range. Seasonal forecasts for Tokyo point to daytime highs around the low- to mid-30s °C, with AccuWeather’s August outlook showing daily highs between 82°F and 90°F and an average high of 86°F, while other travel-weather guides similarly place August highs near 31°C with humidity often making conditions feel hotter.[1][14][16]

The closest comparable frame is how weather markets often price a single-day outcome against a broader climate baseline: the public may focus on the month’s average, while the settlement depends on one airport reading at the day’s maximum. JMA’s August daily data for Tokyo already shows how quickly the metro area can vary within the same day and across nearby stations, with Haneda often sitting a little below inland locations during peak heat.[8][10] That helps explain why a 0% yes line can exist even in a hot month: traders are looking for a specific station, a specific calendar day, and a specific recorded maximum, not the general feel of summer in Tokyo.

The main catalysts are the intraday temperature trend, cloud cover, rain, and any typhoon-adjacent weather pattern that suppresses heating or triggers a late spike before the daily maximum is fixed. Forecast services currently point to warm conditions rather than an outright cool day, with Tokyo around the mid- to high-20s °C in some feeds and around 31°C on longer-range monthly outlooks, so traders should watch for forecast updates after sunrise and any change in wind or precipitation timing.[2][3][7][15] Because the market settles on the highest reading for the day, a brief afternoon burst can matter more than the morning forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.