Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s question is the *day’s peak reading* at Haneda, not the average or the noon snapshot, so the market is really about whether the airport tops out in a fairly ordinary summer band or spikes into a hotter bracket before the settlement cut-off. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES implies no one is assigning material weight to the higher temperature ranges, which is notable given that Tokyo’s August climatology is already hot, with typical highs around 31°C and forecasts for early August in the low- to mid-30s Celsius.[4][7][10]

The best comparable frame is how weather markets often hinge on a single measurement rather than the broader feel of the day: a small shift in the afternoon maximum can move the result from one bucket to the next, much like a close jury split in an awards market can turn on one decisive vote rather than the general consensus. Recent Tokyo summer data also show how quickly the city can jump: JMA’s July observations included a 35.3°C extreme in Nerima on 14 July 2026, while central Tokyo and Haneda were already in the low 30s on that date, underlining that high-end outcomes remain plausible when conditions align.[8][15]

The main catalysts are the same ones that drive short-horizon temperature moves: cloud cover, sun angle after sunrise, sea breeze, and any rainfall or storm interference that limits heating. Traders should watch the local hourly forecast and any late updates from weather services during the morning and early afternoon, because Tokyo has been forecast in the upper 80s Fahrenheit by 8–9 a.m. on 2 August, leaving room for a modest further rise before the settlement window closes.[1][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.