Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s reading here is the day’s **highest temperature at Haneda Airport**, so the market is about the single peak value, not the afternoon average. That matters because even on very hot Tokyo days, the top print can move by a degree or two depending on cloud cover, sea breeze and the timing of showers; the settlement source is Wunderground for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with revisions allowed until the next day’s first datapoint is published.

The broader summer backdrop leans hot. Tokyo’s August climate norm is around the low 30s Celsius for daytime highs, with forecast ranges and travel guides placing August highs near 31°C and common daily peaks in the mid-30s during heat spells.[1][7][11][16] Recent historical data also show a warming tendency, with Tokyo’s record August high at 37.3°C in 1994 and a 2025 monthly average daily high of 34.4°C in August, underscoring that a mid-30s outcome is entirely plausible in a strong heat pattern.[2][12] That makes a 0% crowd price for the YES side hard to reconcile with the seasonal baseline unless the market is quoting a specific threshold far above the likely range.

For traders, the key catalysts are the Japan Meteorological Agency outlook, day-of synoptic conditions over the Kanto plain, and any late-day convective rain or cloud build that can cap the maximum. Polymarket’s own live pricing on the same event shows the crowd clustering around 34–35°C rather than an extreme tail outcome, which is consistent with August heat but not with a guaranteed scorcher.[10] The practical read is that the market should stay sensitive to any forecast shift in Pacific High strength, humidity, or sea-breeze timing rather than to long-range seasonal averages alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.