Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s maximum temperature on 6 August will be set by the day’s peak reading at Changi Airport, so the market is really a bet on whether the afternoon heat gets nudged up or capped by cloud and showers. Early-day conditions are already warm, with current nearby readings around 30°C and short-range models showing August highs in Singapore clustered near 30–31°C, with individual days sometimes reaching 33–34°C in hotter spells.[2][9][13]

That makes the current **0% YES** crowd-implied price easiest to read as a sceptical opening, not a statement that the day cannot run hot. Singapore’s August climate is normally tight around the low 30s by day, and historical averages point to daily highs near 31°C, with the month dominated by high humidity, frequent cloud cover and occasional thundery showers that can shave the top off the day’s maximum.[7][19][20] In market terms, this is closer to a narrow-range temperature call than a binary weather shock.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move public expectation in other crowd-priced adjudications: official forecast updates, hour-by-hour model shifts, and whether late-morning or afternoon showers arrive before the temperature has time to top out. Singapore’s National Environment Agency has recently warned of fair, occasionally windy conditions with localised short-duration thundery showers during the first fortnight of August, while daily forecast pages for Singapore show a mixed rain-and-heat setup rather than a clean hot run-up.[13][4][10] For traders, the key dependency is whether Changi gets a dry, sunny heating window long enough to produce a notably higher daily maximum before any cloud or rain suppresses the reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.