Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

On 27 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. Historical data shows June highs at this location typically range from 26°C to 29°C, rarely dipping below 24°C or exceeding 32°C, with averages hovering near 27°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome appears misaligned with these climatic norms, as similar markets on Polymarket have consistently priced 27°C as the frontrunner with 64% confidence, while 26°C holds 21% [2]. This discrepancy mirrors past instances where public sentiment initially underweighted jury-style consensus, akin to Eurovision’s 50/50 jury-televote split where early televote odds often diverge from final jury-adjusted results before correction.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground settlement feed for real-time updates, as the resolution depends strictly on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 27 June at the Pudong station. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs between 27°C and 29°C for Shanghai Pudong in June 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures clustering around 27°C [4]. Additionally, watch for any weather-related flight delays or cancellations at Pudong Airport on 27 June, as JAL has flagged potential disruptions due to bad weather, which could correlate with cloud cover or precipitation affecting peak temperatures [10]. The market’s 0% "YES" probability may reflect a transient public bias rather than a fundamental shift in meteorological precedent, suggesting an opportunity for correction once settlement data aligns with historical averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.