Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, Seoul will experience early summer conditions with temperatures typically ranging between 19°C and 28°C, though humidity often pushes real-feel values higher. The market in question resolves to the temperature range containing the highest reading at Incheon International Airport, sourced from Wunderground, yet the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome, implying extreme doubt about any specific high-temperature threshold being met.

Historically, June in South Korea marks the transition into the rainy season, with late June often hotter and more humid than early June, yet rarely reaching the extreme peaks of July or August. Comparable weather markets, such as those tracking Eurovision jury-televote splits or Oscars preferential ballots, show that public sentiment can lag behind technical precedents; here, the 0% probability may reflect a misunderstanding of Incheon’s microclimate versus Seoul’s urban heat, or an overreliance on midsummer benchmarks that do not apply to early summer.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for 25 June, particularly any announcements regarding monsoon onset or heat advisories, as these could shift temperature expectations. Recent reports from AccuWeather indicate daily highs in Seoul may reach 78°–91°F (25.5°C–32.8°C), with real-feel temperatures potentially exceeding 35°C due to humidity over 80%[4][6]. A sudden shift in monsoon timing or an unexpected heatwave could invalidate the current crowd-implied probability, making this a high-dependency event tied to real-time meteorological updates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.